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The Upfronts are fast approaching and I need to post what I think will happen (if only to say TOLDJA!).
Let the Guessing Game begin!
First, the renewals.
Lots of shows are on the bubble as always this time of year.
Ergo, it’s the perfect moment to play the guessing game of what is coming back/getting canceled.
Some of the educated guesses on here are mainly follow-ups to my durability thinking in the Spec Script 2009 list I gave a couple of months ago.
Shows that are not on this list have either been already declared canceled (My Own Worst Enemy, Prison Break, etc.), have already been renewed (24, Ugly Betty, Lost, Grey’s Anatomy, etc.), or I don’t care much about/forgot about.
Since I’m crazy, often wrong, and especially suicidal, here is my guess list:
Cold Case
My guess: Canceled
Why?: This renewal fight is between Cold Case and Without a Trace. Given that Trace has more decent numbers than Cold Case,
Why not?: The show is the youngest of the two.
Eleventh Hour
My guess: Canceled
Why?: A lot of other, new, procedural-type shows are coming CBS’ way.
Why not?: Bruckheimer.
Flashpoint
My guess: Renewed
Why?: Epic Friday ratings. Add to that the fact that more and more shows are being co-produced, and Flashpoint is here for the long run.
Why not?: No real reason.
How I Met Your Mother
My guess: Renewed
Why?: I think it still has one season under its sleeve.
Why not?: Average ratings for a CBS sitcom, and both The Big Bang Theory & Two and a Half Men have already been renewed for multiple seasons.
The Mentalist
My guess: Renewed
Why?: Duh.
Why not?: CBS execs have realised it’s a Psych copy-cat.
The New Life of Old Christine
My guess: Canceled
Why?: Has been disposable ever since it was launched.
Why not?: If the upcoming sitcoms are complete failures, the show might see another day.
Rules of Engagement
My guess: Renewed
Why?: The show is pulling in better numbers than CSI: Miami.
Why not?: Like Old Christine, the show is fairly disposable and has mostly those ratings thanks two its lead-in.
Without a Trace
My guess: Renewed
Why?: See above regarding Cold Case.
Why not?: The show is old and expensive.
Worst Week
My guess: Canceled
Why?: Pulled out of sked, low ratings.
Why not?: Jesus has returned.
Chuck
My guess: Renewed
Why?: Like I previously said, I doubt NBC would leave to die a heavily-promoted show, especially after putting so much money in the 3-D episode, even if the ratings are average.
Why not?: Everyone and their mothers are saying it’s canned.
Kings
My guess: Canceled
Why?: Thoroughly under-promoted, a lame timeslot followed by an even lamer timeslot followed by the show being pushed back to Summer.
Why not?: Good question.
Life
My guess: Canceled
Why?: The show was on average pulling worse ratings than Knight Rider or My Own Worst Enemy.
Why not?: My prayers worked.
Medium
My guess: Canceled
Why?: Because I want it to.
Why not?: Sundays at 10PM, right doc?
My Name is Earl
My guess: Canceled
Why?: Change is coming and they need to clean out a bit their Thursday lineup.
Why not?: The ratings, even though average, are still decent compared to the rest of the NBC shows.
Parks & Recreation
My guess: Renewed
Why?: The show pulls in pretty decent numbers…
Why not?: …despite its very late start.
Southland
My guess: Renewed
Why?: The show pulls in pretty decent numbers despite its very late start.
Why not?: NBC’s sked is getting smaller and smaller.
Better Off Ted
My guess: Canceled
Why?: In the same rating-zone as Pushing Daisies and Dirty Sexy Money once were.
Why not?: No reason why it should get renewed, Better Off Dead.
Castle
My guess: Canceled
Why?: Lackluster ratings (and reviews) and ABC needs to shed some shows to make room for the new.
Why not?: I don’t want Nathan Fillion to be jobless.
Cupid
My guess: Canceled
Why?: No time for third chances.
Why not?: Why not, not?
Scrubs
My guess: Canceled
Why?: Everyone has moved on.
Why not?: It would be a good prank to renew it.
The Unusuals
My guess: Canceled
Why?: Very late start and mediocre ratings.
Why not?: ABC might take pity on Harold Perrineau.
Bones
My guess: Renewed
Why?: Decent to good ratings.
Why not?: Don’t you want to continue be bored?
Dollhouse
My guess: Canceled
Why?: All those reasons.
Why not?: All these reasons.
Fringe
My guess: Renewed
Why?: “By the writers of Star Trek comes the new season of Fringe.“
Why not?: In one of the many parallel universes out there, the show gets canned.
House M.D.
My guess: Renewed
Why?: Best. Ratings. Ever.
Why not?: The Upfronts will be on April Fool’s Day 2010.
Lie to Me
My guess: Renewed
Why?: Also has great ratings and a known star.
Why not?: I would be lying if I said it was gonna get canceled.
The Sarah Connor Chronicles
My guess: Canceled
Why?: More or less the same reasons as Dollhouse. The ratings are bad and FOX isn’t happy.
Why not?: Send back an army of viewers in time to watch the show.
Sit Down, Shut Up
My guess: Canceled
Why?: The poor ratings are tanking FOX’s Sunday night.
Why not?: The ratings the show would pull next year would be (sadly) funnier than the show itself. Yes, I’m harsh.
The next Guessing Game will be about the pilots that are going to get picked up, so stay tuned.
