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Cord-cutting is not a myth

Cord-cutting is not a myth

I’ve been watching television shows on my computer for most of my life.

No, I’m not 10 years old.

I started in 2001. Before 1080p MKVs and crappy AVIs.
Buffy Season Six was my first.

When I moved to the US, I continued watching TV on my laptop, and then my desktop. And in 2012, I finally bought an actual TV. Not because it was a TV, but because it was a screen. And an awesome one at that.

Earlier this week, a room full of executives gave a conference about the TV industry. Forbes published an article on the subject, entitling “Why cord-cutting is a myth“.

A myth? Isn’t that going a bit too far?

Hearst Ventures’ George Kliavkoff didn’t think so:

Cord-cutting is a great “story”, but I think it’s over-reported.

Amy Banse, managing director of Comcast Ventures concurred:

The volume of press around cord cutting doesn’t quite match reality.

The thing is, numbers don’t lie.

For the first time ever, Comcast now has more high-speed Internet customers than cable TV (22.55 million vs. 22.3 million).
The number of US households has been growing around 1 million a year, yet TV cable has been stagnating for a long time while Internet has skyrocketed (in addition to being a utility).

Comcast_2nd_Quarter_Customer_Growth_2011-2015_High_Speed_Internet_Customers_in_thousands_Video_Customers_in_thousands_chartbuilder

So where is all this denial coming from?

Let’s go back to that Forbes article–

Joe Marchese, president of advanced advertising products for Fox Networks Group, pointed out that Internet access still requires cord—in the form of a cable or a phone line.

Okay. Literally requiring a cord to use the Internet means you can’t be a cord-cutter.
That is, literally, the most literal argument I’ve ever read. Also, completely nonsensical.
People aren’t “cord-cutting” a physical apparatus, they are cutting ties with a specific content delivery method. Simple as that.

Which brings us to the main eyebrow-raising maneuver to reassure shareholders that, don’t worry guys, cord-cutting is totally not a thing.

As Kliavkoff explained:

What’s more likely to gain sizable traction is cord “shaving”. […] A la carte purchasing of channels—and not taking most of them—is a far more interesting area.

With HBO’s a-la-carte inevitable success, such a statement is undoubtedly true–except for the fact that subscribing to HBO Now or Showtime Anytime and cancelling Time Warner have substantially the same outcome.
In other words, the difference between customers changing behaviors and customers never having that behavior to begin with is irrelevant.

Playing word games to argue literal cord-cutting is “over-estimated” is a waste of everyone’s time. Cord-cutting isn’t a “myth” simply because it doesn’t fit a company’s very narrow definition. Worse, you are being disingenuous towards all your current, past, and potential customers by ignoring the motivation behind their actions.

I’ve never had to “cut the cord” because I’ve never wanted to pay $100/month for a cable TV package.
I guess I’m not a cord-cutter. I’m a “cord never(er)” (or “never-cord”).

People are finding newer, better alternatives than the old cord-a-roo.
Whether that means they’re doing it from the get-go or are realizing it years later leads to the same result…

Candle-making can’t stay profitable for long now that people are getting light from a series of tubes.

HBO’s victory lap and a garbage can (Week Roundup)

HBO’s victory lap and a garbage can (Week Roundup)

On this week’s TV news link roundup: pilot season mad-dash, the Sopranos final sequence by its director, a cable victory lap, some YouTube garbage and ABC Family targets a new buzz word.

Tight Production Schedules Put Pressure On Pilot Quality

An interesting look at the mad-dash of pilot season, especially since pilots are being ordered later and later.

All networks, particularly ABC and CBS, were again way behind in their pickups, compressing the time for staffing, casting and producing the pilots.

Let’s be honest here. Network pilots have never had that much lead-time to begin with. It’s always been an insane game of last-minute reshoots and deliveries. There’s a reason pilots have often (if not always) been considered a show’s weakest episode. That is, until “they” run the concept into the ground by season five.
The crazy news of the article however comes from the opening date of Upfront Week: May 11. Yes, that’s hell-a early and “the earliest in at least a decade”. Good luck to post-production.

Eight years after it aired, David Chase explains how he created the excruciating tension of the last Sopranos scene

It was my decision to direct the episode such that whenever Tony arrives someplace, he would see himself. He would get to the place and he would look and see where he was going.

Spoiler alert: he doesn’t say what happens after.
Although not directly related to the show’s writing per se, it is still worth the gander. Definitely a must-read if if you care even just a bit about the visual component of this historical HBO show.

And speaking of HBO…

At the Head of the Pack, HBO Shows the Way Forward

The NY Times rocked it with an in-depth look at the inside of HBO’s current programming direction. Watch and read as Richard Plepler, HBO’s CEO, makes a victory lap.

Interesting, isn’t it, that at a time that’s been called the most competitive moment in our industry’s history, we have, in my opinion, the best array of content in our history.

Best array of content in your history? While HBO’s 2015 series are certainly more popular while airing than the ones from the 2000s, I’m not sure the quality and endurance compares. The Sopranos, Six Feet Under, Rome, Deadwood, Carnivàle and The Wire just called. And it was a weird conference call.
The piece also states that back in 2007/2008 “[HBO’s] content cupboard was bare, and rival TV executives openly referred to the cable network as HB-Over.”
Was “HB-Over” an actual thing? Well, yes. In fact, it came from this previous NY Times piece where Showtime’s chairman and CEO Matthew C. Blank was quoted:

HB-Over. I’ve heard that term used for HBO both outside and inside our network.

Tough pill to swallow now that Starz has taken Showtime’s second place in the premium cable world. Woops.
It’ll be interesting to see how CBS competes with HBO Now’s (nearly) independent streaming service.

Seinfeld calls YouTube a ‘giant garbage can’

Although Seinfeld was joking, he was in fact touting his Comedians in Cars Getting Coffee arriving at Crackle.

When you get to a certain point in the business, what a man is looking for in a network is the same thing he’s looking for in his underwear. He’s looking for a little bit of support and a little bit of freedom. And that’s exactly what Crackle offered.

You can tell how much he respects online content. I think he’s reached that rare apex of making people giving him money laugh as he openly mocks them.

ABC Family Doubles Down on Original Programming to Reach Young Women

Or as they call them, the “becomers”. Shudder.
In non-buzzy marketing words, they’re referring to young women between 14 and 29 “entering new life phases”. This is good news for the content side of things: the cable network is on the verge of announcing at the upfronts it will “double its original programming slate over the next four years”. ABC Family president Tom Ascheim also added:

The phone is the first smart TV. It’s an incredible source of video. We’re also embedding the social tools they love so much into the ABC Watch experience.

ABC Wat–Oh. For a second there I thought you were referring to Android Wear and apps for your wrist. You’re just talking about your VOD service. Gotcha. Actually, that makes me want to develop some kind of app for smartwatches. Maybe a crappy asymmetric viewing experience?
ABC Family is actually revamping its online viewing service this summer to increase mobile viewing. No surprise there considering that phones are now the way most 25-and-under watch video content.
And the AdWeek article is already talking about Generation Z. God help us.

Drama Spec Script 2015 – What is hot and what is not

Drama Spec Script 2015 – What is hot and what is not


UPDATED:
A brand new 2019 list has been posted.
Click here to access it.

Like every year, it is now time to review which TV shows are good to spec, and which are not.
Dedicated posts will be made respectively for the best comedies (half-hour) and the best dramas (one-hour).
As the title says, this post is all about the dramas.
In addition, you’ll also find (when available) a script for the corresponding show for educational purposes.
Canceled or dead shows have been removed since last season’s spec list.

NOTE:
Given Warner Bros’ rules for their fellowship, I have indicated with an asterisk (*) series that they will not accept specs for (mainly first-season shows).

Let’s do another quick recap of how the list works:
The shows are divided into five categories regarding their appeal to readers and how well they are known/read:
– Over-specced (shows that have passed their prime, try to avoid doing them)
– Mainstream (shows that have matured enough that they have become on-the-nose speccers–and a lot of people are speccing them)
– Wild Cards (soon, everyone will spec those, maybe you can get a head start)
– Outsiders (specs that will get you out from the pack)
– Gamblers (risky shows that could pay off, or bomb)

There is also a grade regarding the show’s longevity in relation to its speccability.
Meaning, how long can you keep your spec script fresh without having to throw it in the trash?
To do this, we will use the greatest grading system on Earth; stars:
★★★★★ – Excellent
★★★★★ – Very Good
★★★★★ – Average
★★★★★ – Fair
★★★★★ – Poor

And here we go.

Over-Specced

Re-tool your spec if you have one, but you probably shouldn’t bother beginning a new one for these shows.

American Horror Story (FX) *
Type: Serialized horror
Change of location, change of story.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – It’s Ryan Murphy.

Bones/Castle (FOX/ABC)
Type: Light police procedural
On their death bed.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – Ten seasons later, do you really think you can out-write these shows?

CSI/Criminal Minds (CBS)
Type: Police procedurals
Are you kidding?
Longevity: ★★★★★ – You’re kidding.

The Following (FOX)
Type: Serialized police procedural
So much for limited series.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – Hard to keep up with.

Game of Thrones (HBO) *
Type: Serialized fantasy drama
Oh, sweet summer child.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – The books, they are changin’.

The Good Wife (CBS)
Type: Legal procedural
Reverted all the changes it did last year. Doesn’t mean it’s a good choice.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – One more season to go after this one.

Grey’s Anatomy (ABC) *
Type: Medical procedural
Code blue.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – It’s dead, Jim.

Grimm/Once Upon A Time/The Vampire Diaries (NBC/ABC/The CW)
Type: Fantasy drama
It might seem odd to pair them together, but they now fit in the same fantasy category (although Once still has a bit more reach). In any case, they’ve all been done by now.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – Won’t die soon, but the current plotlines will.

Hawaii Five-0/NCIS:LA (CBS) *
Type: Police/Action procedural
There are better action procedural choices out there.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – Not that many twists and turns though.

Homeland (Showtime)
Type: Serialized thriller
How the mighty have fallen.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – A new start.

Justified (FX)
Type: Police procedural
I guarantee you’re not the only Justified spec.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – Final season.

Person of Interest (CBS)
Type: Action/Science-fiction drama
It used to be a procedural with interesting ideas. It has since become one of the best science-fiction shows on television. Unfortunately…
Longevity: ★★★★★ – …they’ve been many changes since.

Revenge (ABC)
Type: Serialized family drama
I’ll lend you my copy of Monte Cristo instead.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – It’s a soap!

Royal Pains/Suits (USA) *
Type: Light procedural
Went from low-key to ideal light procedural to spec fast.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – A couple seasons and then gone.

Scandal (ABC)
Type: Serialized political drama
Shondaland has better spec choices around.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – Oh boy.

Shameless (Showtime)
Type: Serialized family dramedy
Debatable category. Undebatable spec popularity.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – Welcome back to the show, that one guy.

The Walking Dead (AMC)
Type: Ensemble/horror drama
This show was over-specced by the end of season one.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – Don’t worry, everyone you love will die.

Mainstream

The current and new widespread shows in town that are getting read.

Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. (ABC)
Type: Fantasy procedural
Not as big a spec success as one would have thought a year ago. Still a prime choice.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – All the revelations threaten to transform the show into something much more unpredictable.

The Americans (FX)
Type: Serialized historical thriller
The most specced drama around right now. Bar none.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – I guess you could still try.

Arrow/Beauty & The Beast (The CW) *
Type: Action/Fantasy procedural
Still a very popular genre spec coupled with a not-so-well-known series. Either can be good (although they’re standing on their last mainstream leg).
Longevity: ★★★★★ – Assess the character problem first, then find the case.

The Blacklist (NBC) *
Type: Action procedural
A hit for NBC transformed into a formulaic albeit strong procedural show to spec.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – Come on. It got the Super Bowl spot.

Elementary (CBS)
Type: Police procedural
Who’s to say it hasn’t become more popular than its British counterpart?
Longevity: ★★★★★ – Self-contained stories work wonders.

Hannibal (NBC)
Type: Serialized psychological drama
Extremely popular spec right now, meaning it is likely its final mainstream season.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – Hopefully you know the stuff to come.

House of Cards/Orange Is The New Black (Netflix)
Type: Serialized political/relationship drama
Yes, Orange is a drama. Yes, people love speccing Netflix shows.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – Yes, a new season is upon us.

Masters of Sex (Showtime)
Type: Serialized historical drama
Surprisingly, this is the premium cable drama getting the most traction out there.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – It’s a slow burn.

Nashville (ABC)
Type: Musical/Family drama
Goes under the radar most times, but could be a strong choice…
Longevity: ★★★★★ – …assuming you know the relationships well enough.

Sleepy Hollow (FOX)
Type: Fantasy procedural
Has now become the go-to spec when it comes to genre shows. Open up your testaments.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – Uneven second season, but a new showrunner is coming up (big changes?).

Wild Cards

Not quite fully widespread but will get there given the chance.

The 100 (The CW)
Type: Serialized science-fiction drama
Engaging characters, unexpected stories and grey morality makes this a top contender for genre specs.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – Good luck keeping up.

Agent Carter (ABC) *
Type: Action-adventure drama
Much more successful in its freshman year than S.H.I.E.L.D. was then. Could fast become a contender…
Longevity: ★★★★★ – …once the show actually gets picked for another season.

Banshee (Cinemax) *
Type: Serialized pulp drama
Moving upward as an offbeat genre show.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – It’s pulp, meaning lots of movement. Good news is the season’s already over.

Chicago Fire/Chicago PD (NBC)
Type: Action procedural
Dick Wolf is back stronger than ever.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – Sweep twists and fires to put out.

Empire (FOX)
Type: Family soap
Talk about a surprise success. One to watch for great specs.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – Who knows where the plotlines are going.

The Flash (The CW)
Type: Action/Fantasy procedural
The rightful successor to Arrow. Will definitely grow into a must-spec show by next season.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – It’s a super-hero procedural.

Gotham (FOX)
Type: Noir procedural
Batman without Batman! What’s not to love.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – Much like Arrow, it’s best to figure out what you want your characters to deal with before coming up with villains.

How to Get Away with Murder (ABC) *
Type: Legal procedural
The Shondaland alternative I was referring to.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – Thankfully it has many cases of the week.


Outsiders

The shows (mostly cable) you may be tempted to take a risk on, getting you on top of the reading pile. Beyond that, it depends on the willingness of the reader and his/her knowledge of the show. Who knows, maybe the showrunner is into less popular shows and will value your risk-taking.

The Affair/The Leftovers (Showtime/HBO) *
Type: Serialized relationship drama
It could seem surprising that Affair and Leftovers are so low on the list. Their quality is hard to match, while their popularity is still not that of other cable dramas.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – Dangerous territories.

Bates Motel (A&E)
Type: Serialized family drama/horror
Is stuck as a show not many people watch or spec.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – Things could get interesting.

Halt & Catch Fire/Turn (AMC)
Type: Serialized historical drama
Not getting the level of notoriety of previous AMC shows. In other words, fewer specs.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – New enough you should be able to find unique stories.

Jane the Virgin (The CW)
Type: Serialized dramedy.
A creative and critical success would make this a great pick for an under-the-radar show to spec.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – Potentially at risk when it comes to stories.

The Last Ship/Legends (TNT) *
Type: Action procedural
Not total gamblers if only for their broader spec appeal, even to non-viewers (assuming you do a self-contained case).
Longevity: ★★★★★ – Could easily last you a few seasons depending on your focus.

Major Crimes (TNT)
Type: Procedural drama
Still not that widely specced given the network and popularity of the series.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – And this could be your last chance.

The Originals/Reign (The CW)
Type: Serialized fantasy/historical drama
These CW fantasy dramas are staying put for now. More popular genre shows have already proven more popular, both in the number of specs and how well they’ve done.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – Twists!

Orphan Black (BBC America) *
Type: Serialized science-fiction drama
Popular online, but outside genre fans (who end up speccing it a lot), it isn’t getting the wide success you’d assume.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – Relies heavily on turns.

Rectify/The Red Road (Sundance) *
Type: Serialized drama
Sundance is on the up-and-up with these strong serials. Definitely not people’s top choice, which could work in your advantage…
Longevity: ★★★★★ – …or leave you in the dust.

Gamblers

For one reason or another, these are much riskier specs to do right now. You have been warned.

12 Monkeys/Defiance/Helix/The Strain (Syfy/FX) *
Type: Science-fiction/Fantasy drama
This may surprise a few, but truth is pure science-fiction dramas, especially serialized, are neither read nor specced that often. Syfy shows (save for a couple exceptions) have also never grown into mainstream spec choices due to low viewership.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – Most are serialized. If you figure the formula, go for it.

Backstrom (FOX) *
Type: Crime dramedy
Another shockingly low position for a drama (this time from a network). Unfortunately, the series is not that well known.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – Nor is it getting great ratings.

Chasing Life/The Fosters (ABC Family) *
Type: Serialized family/workplace drama
It’s a sad fact that ABC Family series are risky to spec if only because of their very low reach in fellowships. On the plus side, that means less competition.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – Try to discern the formula.

Graceland/Satisfaction (USA) *
Type: Action/Relationship drama
Not many people know about these shows, let alone watch them. A very risky bet.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – Could go on and on, considering.

True Detective (HBO) *
Type: Serialized police drama
Do you really have to ask?
Longevity: ★★★★★ – The second season hasn’t even premiered.

2015 Trends

If you think there are a lot of shows on TV right now, you’d be right.
Count ’em– 68 dramas are on this year’s record-breaking spec list! Yes, it’s a crowded marketplace.

If the comedies had a rough year, the dramas are prospering like bunnies.
Ventures are increasing and so does the variety of low-key serialized fares. Only a few procedurals have a wide enough success that they are worth considering. On the other hand, serialized series get the most choice, but produce much less content to get a good grasp of their formula (if they have one). And then there are the anthologies.
The trend this year with drama specs continues to be “quicker is better”. Second-year shows are already mainstream (Sleepy Hollow, Blacklist), with brand new series not far behind (Empire, Flash, Gotham).

More choices. Better quality. A richer field is at play. However this also means finding the right fit is more problematic. With so many dramas out there, it is now easier than ever to find good shows to spec, yet harder to pick the perfect choice.

Also check out:
TV Writing Fellowships: The Bix Six

Comedy Spec Script list