facebook_pixel Press "Enter" to skip to content

Posts tagged as “Leverage”

Drama Spec Script 2012 – What is hot and what is not

Drama Spec Script 2012 – What is hot and what is not


UPDATED:
A brand new 2019 list has been posted.
Click here to access it.


Like every year, it is now time to review which TV shows are good to spec, and which are not.
Dedicated posts will be made respectively for the best comedies (half-hour) and the best dramas (one-hour).
As the title says, this post is all about the dramas.
In addition, you’ll also find (when available) a script for the corresponding show.
Canceled or dead shows have been removed since last season’s spec list.

NEW ADDITION:
Given Warner Bros’ new rules for their fellowship, I have indicated with an asterisk (*) series that they will not accept specs for (mainly first-season shows).

Let’s do another quick recap of how the list works:
The shows are divided into five categories regarding their appeal to readers and how well they are known/read:
– Over-specced (shows that have passed their prime, try to avoid doing them)
– Mainstream (shows that have matured enough that they have become on-the-nose speccers–and a lot of people are speccing them)
– Wild Cards (soon, everyone will spec those, maybe you can get a head start)
– Outsiders (specs that will get you out from the pack)
– Gamblers (risky shows that could pay off, or bomb)

There is also a grade regarding the show’s longevity in relation to its speccability.
Meaning, how long can you keep your spec script fresh without having to throw it in the trash?
To do this, we will use the greatest grading system on Earth; stars:
★★★★★ – Excellent
★★★★★ – Very Good
★★★★★ – Average
★★★★★ – Fair
★★★★★ – Poor

And here we go.

Over-Specced
Re-tool your spec if you have one, but you probably shouldn’t bother beginning a new one for these shows.

Burn Notice (USA)
Type: Light action procedural
The fact it’s entering its sixth season should give you an idea of why Burn Notice is here.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – Very formulaic but with enough of a twist to keep its fresh vibe.

CSI/Criminal Minds (CBS)
Type: Police procedurals
“Never give up, never surrender” should be their motto.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – Past its prime for about five years now.

Dexter (Sho)
Type: Serialized crime drama
Following last season’s cliffhanger, it is hard to tell where the series is headed
Longevity: ★★★★★ – Only two seasons left.

Grey’s Anatomy/Private Practice/House (ABC/FOX)
Type: Medical procedurals
I’m going to bet a lot of people are able to say: “Been there, specced that”.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – Virtually all medical storylines have already been explored through those three shows.

Mad Men (AMC)
Type: Serialized historical drama
“Out of sight, out of mind” does not hold true for the AMC classic that is still amongst the most popular.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – One of the over-specced shows with possibly the longest longevity factor attached to it. Doesn’t mean the competition isn’t fierce.

Mainstream
The current and new widespread shows in town that are getting read.

Boardwalk Empire (HBO)
Type: Serialized historical drama
A lot of people have fallen in love with Steve Buscemi’s eyes apparently.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – A third season, good ratings, great cast, big producers.

Bones/Castle (FOX/ABC)
Type: Light police procedural
Possibly the last season in the mainstream category for Bones. Castle on the other hand probably has at least a few years ahead of it.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – One is renewed for an eighth season, the other is still awaiting its fate on a fifth.

Breaking Bad (AMC)
Type: Serialized character/family drama
One of the best shows on TV, and one of the hardest ones to spec.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – This is going be its last season, albeit cut in two, which gives a bonus year before you can say farewell to it.

Fringe (FOX)
Type: Science-fiction procedural
There’s only so much science-fiction shows on TV right now, and Fringe is clearly the go-to drama in its genre. This will probably be the last season where I can say it hasn’t been over-speced already.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – Highly volatile.

Glee (FOX)
Type: Light serialized high-school dramedy
As popular in the spec world as on TV, the danger of a Glee spec continues to be that a major part of it will end up being lyrics. Some people might take that for laziness.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – Beware: major cast overhaul upcoming.

The Good Wife (CBS)
Type: Legal procedural
A very smart show to spec, if only for its near-perfect hybrid mix of procedural and serialization. Plus it’s on a network, which makes it more well-known than some of its cable counterpart.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – A slow-burner that will probably garner a few more seasons.

Gossip Girl/90210 (The CW)
Type: Teen dramas
Last season for at least one of the two as being considered “mainstream”. Perhaps there are better show alternatives to consider.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – Potentially entering its sixth season this fall, Gossip Girl has still some life left into it. 90210 continues to be hit or miss on the cancellation scale.

Hawaii Five-0 (CBS)
Type: Police/Action procedural
As expected last season, Hawaii Five-0 has become a great action-procedural mainstream spec to add to your arsenal.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – Renewed and with a long life ahead of it.

Justified (FX)
Type: Police procedural
Justified is another series that completely exploded into the Mainstream category and has become one of the top specced show around.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – A fourth season is upcoming, and me thinks it will keep on going.

The Mentalist (CBS)
Type: Police procedural
In its prime.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – Already going on to its fifth season, The Mentalist is still the most solid police procedural around.

NCIS:LA (CBS)
Type: Police/Action procedural
Similar to Hawaii Five-0, NCIS:LA seems to deliver to people looking for an action/police hybrid drama.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – Let me guess; renewed?

Sons of Anarchy (FX)
Type: Serialized ensemble drama
Similar to Breaking Bad, Sons of Anarchy‘s serialized elements may prove difficult to spec. With that said, the FX series has definitely grown into becoming a high speccer.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – Those storylines, they keep on moving!

True Blood (HBO)
Type: Serialized fantasy drama
Although on the verge of being overspecced, the (supposed) unpredictability of the show makes it prone to fresh takes on the main characters. Or so they say.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – The upcoming season is the last for Alan Ball, and the show is catching up on the books. Be careful.

The Vampire Diaries (The CW)
Type: Serialized fantasy drama
On paper, it seems like a great, popular choice when it comes to fantasy series, with that said…
Longevity: ★★★★★ – …the constant flux in storylines may make you mad enough that you’d want to avoid speccing this one.

The Walking Dead (AMC)
Type: Ensemble/horror drama
Undeniably a very popular show, both on screen and on the page. The strong stand-alone aspect of the series makes it prone to lessen the serialized elements within your spec.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – Regardless of your stance about how good or bad the show is, it’s not going anywhere anytime soon.

Wild Cards
Not quite fully widespread but will get there given the chance.

Game of Thrones (HBO) *
Type: Serialized fantasy drama
People think they can easily write great adaptations, which makes Game of Thrones the best candidate for top-specced show of 2013. But just because you love the book doesn’t mean you can write it. And there’s also this small issue of coming up with original stand-alone stories not found in the novels.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – Hugely successful and over six books. Enough said.

Homeland (Sho) *
Type: Serialized thriller
The Showtime series made it surprisingly big last season, which inevitably transformed it into a popular spec show.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – The serialization may put some people off, but it shouldn’t be that difficult to craft an episode around a specific subset of Abu Nazir’s terrorist plot (oh, look, free advice).

Leverage (TNT)
Type: Light heist/con/action procedural
Take it now before it goes over the hill.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – Five seasons and still going strong; however, the amount of original cons left are dwindling by the episode.

Nikita (The CW)
Type: Action/spy procedural
The only spy drama option as of now (that will surely change next year).
Longevity: ★★★★★ – Average ratings and a pricey show means The CW could pull the plug, but Nikita is almost its only viable alternative series to the teen dramas.

Once Upon A Time (ABC) *
Type: Fantasy family drama
The most family-friendly show on this list, OUAT will probably be very specced by this time next year.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – A near-infinite pool of fairy tales coupled with big ratings means ABC has found its new long-standing drama.

Parenthood (NBC)
Type: Serialized family drama
First world problems: family edition.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – The serialized nature of Parenthood makes it hard to create a true stand-alone storyline, but a renewal is quasi-certain.

Person of Interest (CBS) *
Type: Crime procedural
The sci-fi touch is light but nonetheless makes Person of Interest an interest new addition to the crime procedural arena.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – Renewal is a done deal.

Revenge (ABC) *
Type: Serialized family drama
The ultimate breakout soap of the past season, Revenge will clearly become a great series to spec…
Longevity: ★★★★★ – …depending on where the dominoes will fall at the end of this season.

The Secret Circle (The CW) *
Type: Serialized fantasy drama
If you feel The Vampire Diaries has been overdone, then this is for you.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – Is it going to last? Two words: Kevin Williamson

Smash (NBC)
Type: Serialized musical drama
Make way for another musical series. Unlike Glee, you can showcase your lyrics talent given the show’s use of original songs.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – Already renewed.

Touch (FOX) *
Type: Serialized fantasy/family drama
It is probably too soon to begin thinking about writing a spec for this mid-season show.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – There’s too much serendipity in Touch for me to care, but at least it adds an interesting dynamic to the usual “problem-solving” storyline.

Treme (HBO)
Type: Serialized historical drama
Even if Treme is not that well known to be a good stand-out spec, let’s just say going toe-to-toe with David Simon is not recommended.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – A third seasons premiering this fall and a fourth one already planned; looks like New Orleans is en vogue.



Outsiders
The shows (mostly cable) you may be tempted to take a risk on, getting you on top of the reading pile. Beyond that, it depends on the willingness of the reader and his/her knowledge of the show. Who knows, maybe the showrunner is into less popular shows and will value your risk-taking.

Hart of Dixie (The CW) *
Type: Serialized medical/family drama
If you’re aiming for broad appeal with a cute soapesque family/medical drama, Hart of Dixie will suit you just fine.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – More WB than CW, the series will most likely always be on the bubble.

Psych (USA)
Type: Light crime procedural
A little less used (and known) than its spy counterpart making it not quite as overspecced.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – Psych‘s run is impressive, with a recent renewal for another full-16 episode season order, continuing its records as the longest-running series on USA Nework.

Southland (TNT)
Type: Police procedural
Southland offers a great option in the “edgy/realistic” police drama procedural.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – Once upon a time, the show was on its deathbed. It is now a popular basic-cable drama, in more ways than one.

Warehouse 13 (Syfy)
Type: Science-fiction procedural
Despite growing old, there are almost no purely procedural contenders in this genre. Like Eureka, Warehouse 13 will probably keep this slot until it bites the dust.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – You can never tell what crazy move Syfy will do next to shoot itself in the head.

White Collar (USA)
Type: Light crime procedural
A clear new winner for the blue-sky dramas from USA.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – No way Jose that this show is biting the dust anytime soon.

Gamblers
For one reason or another, these are much riskier specs to do right now. You have been warned.

Blue Bloods (CBS)
Type: Police/family drama
Blue Bloods is still too much under the radar to be considered as a main spec to send out, however the series offers an interesting family/procedural dynamic not really found on any other network shows.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – It’s on Fridays, so you can never know for sure.

Body of Proof/Harry’s Law (ABC/NBC)
Type: Medical/Legal procedurals
The shows are fairly weak to begin with, so trying to break out of the crowd by speccing either of them is disrespectful to your writing.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – Even if renewed, it would be quite hard to write a compelling episode.

Forty-five shows are listed this year and, like last season, a few things can be observed.

Network dramas are coming back in force, slowly eating away the piece of older, aging cable dramas from the big five (AMC, FX, Syfy, USA, and TNT). HBO continues to be home to bigger, grander series that are always more hazardous to spec. NBC continues to be absent for the most part, while CBS and (surprisingly) ABC are taking over the lion share, leaving FOX in the wind.

A clear trend is forming this time around when it comes to popular specced show: serialization.
With a growing and fiercer competition, people are ready to take more risks with bolder choices. Stand-alone procedurals have mostly fallen out of favor for most people, even diminishing the light character serialized dramas’ dominance of the past few years.
Interestingly enough, “fresh is best” seems also to be a new intrinsic concept for now, with first and second-season series being extremely popular out of the gate.

With pilots being the most requested samples, are we moving towards “throwaway specs”, lasting merely a season?
Fudging with mythology, choosing new shows, the classic spec rules are slowly starting to fade away.

Serial or not, as long as a script and the show reflect your voice, it ends up being all about the writing.
Make your choice.

Click here for the Comedy Spec Script list.

Drama Spec Script 2011 – What is hot and what is not

Drama Spec Script 2011 – What is hot and what is not


UPDATED:
A brand new 2019 list has been posted.
Click here to access it.

It is now time to review which current dramas are good to spec, and which are not.
A sample script is provided (when available) with the corresponding show.

Let’s do another quick recap of how the list works:
The shows are divided into five categories regarding their appeal to readers and how well they are known/read:
– Over-specced (shows that have passed their prime, try to avoid doing them)
– Mainstream (shows that have matured enough that they have become on-the-nose speccers–and a lot of people are speccing them)
– Wild Cards (soon, everyone will spec those, maybe you can get a head start)
– Outsiders (specs that will get you out from the pack)
– Gamblers (risky shows that could pay off, or bomb)

There is also a grade regarding the show’s longevity in relation to its speccability.
Meaning, how long can you keep your spec script fresh without having to throw it in the trash?
To do this, we will use the greatest grading system on Earth; stars:
★★★★★ – Excellent
★★★★★ – Very Good
★★★★★ – Average
★★★★★ – Fair
★★★★★ – Poor

And here we go.

Over-Specced
Re-tool your spec if you have one, but you probably shouldn’t bother beginning a new one for these shows.

CSI/Criminal Minds/Law & Order/The Closer (CBS/NBC/TNT)
Type: Police procedurals
Move along folks, nothing to see here.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – If you’re really thinking of speccing these, you’re pretty much five years too late.

Dexter (Sho)
Type: Serialized crime drama
Once upon a time, Dexter was a clear favorite. Now however, the show has past its expiration date for specs.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – Since every season reinvents the show (in an interesting or bad way), it’s never good to put one’s spec stories to the test like that.

Grey’s Anatomy/Private Practice/House (ABC/FOX)
Type: Medical procedurals
Honestly, there’s just no real point in crafting a brand new spec for one of these three.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – Shockingly, they’re all getting another season. Doesn’t mean it’s a good sign.

Mad Men (AMC)
Type: Serialized historical drama
Putting Mad Men as over-specced may once again ruffle a few feathers, but if you know what’s good for you then you’re pretty much aware already that this won’t be an original choice.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – Although there’s a very low risk of AMC ending its flagship drama, treading on serialized plotlines is virtually impossible to avoid.

Mainstream
The current and new widespread shows in town that are getting read.

Bones/Castle (FOX/ABC)
Type: Light police procedural
Bones still has a year or two ahead of it, while Castle joins the mainstream list by becoming the go-to light police procedural specced.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – Both are going strong and the ‘case of the week’ format is a proven crowd-pleaser.

Breaking Bad (AMC)
Type: Serialized character/family drama
The show continues to grow in fame and is probably reaching its peak, which means this might one of the last mainstream years for it.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – The problem isn’t that the show won’t get renewed (it will), it is its serialized aspect. I’ll slow-clap anyone who successfully specs a stand-alone episode of Breaking Bad.

Chuck (NBC)
Type: Light spy/action procedural
Everybody loves Chuck. Sadly this means that it is pretty much on the verge of being over-specced.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – Definitely not as much on the bubble as a couple of seasons ago.

Fringe (FOX)
Type: Police/Science-fiction procedural
The number one science-fiction show specced presently (mainly because there aren’t so many out there). Fringe is a strong option, although…
Longevity: ★★★★★ – …you already know how “on the bubble” this show is, so I’d probably wait to see what FOX choses to do with it.

Glee (FOX)
Type: Light serialized high-school dramedy
As predicted, last year’s major Wild Card is now on top of the Mainstream pile. Still a very hard show to spec mainly because of its atypical world. Also might not be the greatest way to showcase your talent given that a third of the script will probably end up being music lyrics.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – It’s always a good bet to spec the number one show on television, right? Be careful when juggling with all the soap elements (they might give you a headache).

The Good Wife (CBS)
Type: Legal procedural
Jumping from Outsider to Mainstream is no easy task, but The Good Wife has proven times and times again these past few months its popularity. This is clearly a smart show to spec (watch out for the serialized elements).
Longevity: ★★★★★ – Strong ratings and a great procedural/serial balance allows room for a potential spec.

Gossip Girl/90210 (The CW)
Type: Teen dramas
It’s not as if there’s an overwhelming array of teen dramas out there, right?
Longevity: ★★★★★ – Never-ending.

The Mentalist (CBS)
Type: Police procedural
A new classic police procedural to spec. It’s hot all right.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – No need to double check, this one is safe.

NCIS:LA (CBS)
Type: Police/Action procedural
Last year it was about to break big, this year it is big. Its older sister show would be proud.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – Another secure CBS procedural.

True Blood (HBO)
Type: Serialized fantasy drama
Somewhat common in the spec pile, despite its heavy reliance on the books’ mythology. Making a loner out of this one will prove difficult.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – True Blood is a big success, but its stories are all over the place (i.e. it is hard to find a status quo to base a spec on).

Wild Cards
Not quite fully widespread but will get there given the chance.

Boardwalk Empire/Treme (HBO)
Type: Serialized historical drama
Now those are hard shows to spec. If you think you can make a Mad Men or even a True Blood spec work, I’d recommend taking a gander at these two first. Especially Boardwalk Empire (which definitely has a lot of potential).
Longevity: ★★★★★ – With all the acclaim, it’s no wonder HBO is keeping both series tightly where they are.

Hawaii Five-0 (CBS)
Type: Police/Action procedural
Like NCIS:LA last year, this is undoubtedly the breakout procedural hit of the season, which is sure to become Mainstream real fast.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – Hit show, clear-cut formula and procedural aspect leads to a long spec life.

Justified (FX)
Type: Police procedural
A critical darling and great numbers means Justified is getting hotter by the second. It will probably enter Mainstream land by next season.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – The show that keeps on giving (certainly for FX).

Leverage (TNT)
Type: Light heist/con/action procedural
With its fourth season about to debut, Leverage is becoming more popular and the series has matured enough that it’s an almost-perfect light action/heist procedural to spec.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – Finding a solid con that stays unused by the show might prove tricky.

Nikita (The CW)
Type: Action procedural
It’s CW, meaning it’s not that watched, although it also means not that many people are speccing it.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – It is doubtful the network will let this one go seeing as it’s one of their only (relative) hit.

Parenthood (NBC)
Type: Serialized family drama
Speccing this one last season was pretty much a gamble, but since the first year has passed and storylines are settling, it might be an interesting choice.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – Solid numbers indicate renewal, but can you make the family stories work?

Sons of Anarchy (FX)
Type: Serialized ensemble drama
Sure, Sons of Anarchy is FX’s most popular show, yet its extremely serialized aspect makes it very difficult to write for. If you can make it work, go for it.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – Storylines are shaking up every season so it might be tough to keep an SOA spec current.

The Walking Dead (AMC)
Type: Ensemble/horror drama
If a surprise hit was made last year, this is the one. The enormous success of the show and its amazing potential makes it destined for great spec material.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – Great news for potential speccers (not for viewers): The Walking Dead has obviously abandoned the comics’ serialized nature for a more procedural-like aspect.



Outsiders
The shows (mostly cable) you may be tempted to take a risk on, getting you on top of the reading pile. Beyond that, it depends on the willingness of the reader and his/her knowledge of the show. Who knows, maybe the showrunner is into less popular shows and will value your risk-taking.

Burn Notice/Psych (USA)
Type: Light action and crime procedurals
On the limit of being over-specced if only for the fact that they never were mainstream.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – They are both nearing their death bed (even if it’s still a couple of seasons away).

Eureka/Warehouse 13 (Syfy)
Type: Science-fiction procedurals
With Fringe winding down and Stargate: Universe gone, those two are almost the only science-fiction options out there. They are still strong spec shows all around.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – Original stories might be harder to find, especially with Eureka, entering its fifth season already.

Southland (TNT)
Type: Police procedural
Southland is definitely getting more traction with its third season and it’s one of the only cop dramas right now with a real grittiness to it.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – Renewal beyond the current season is still pretty much on the line given the substantial budget cuts needed.

White Collar (USA)
Type: Light crime procedural
White Collar continues to be the dark horse among light procedurals. Undeniably, the show is still continuing to grow in demand.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – Pretty much a success for USA’s standards and a perfect candidate for a more atypical spec show.

Gamblers
For one reason or another, these are much riskier specs to do right now. You have been warned.

Blue Bloods (CBS)
Type: Police/family drama
It was a surprise Friday-night hit for CBS, which might make Blue Bloods an interesting spec choice, yet this might still be too unknown.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – It worked for Fridays but not for Wednesdays, so it’s still a toss-up regarding its renewal.

The Chicago Code/Harry’s Law (FOX/NBC)
Type: Police procedural/Legal procedural
Come on, you want to spec this one already? Too soon.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – Chances are Chicago Code is getting the boot sadly. Harry’s Law meanwhile will probably live to see another season.

Forty shows are listed this year and, like last season, a few trends can be observed.

The basic cable market has never been stronger with a big presence by AMC, FX, Syfy, USA and TNT.
On the premium side, beyond the symbolic Dexter presence, Showtime is still pretty much absent from the list due to the lack of dramas. HBO meanwhile is slowly rebuilding its “epic TV” brand (I’m sure Games of Throne will pop up on the list next year).
Network-wise, CBS is still the procedural king, although FOX and ABC are recouping the field with lighter dramas, while NBC is virtually MIA.

Unsurprisingly, a vast majority of the top shows are procedurals with light character serialization. They are the ones which offer a wide range of storylines without compromising the status quo.
Interestingly enough though, the harder shows to spec (relying on more complex mythologies and serialized plots) are still considered attractive. They are indeed a great platform to showcase more in-depth writing skills, but they come at the price of spec longevity.

The bottom line is the same as usual: select a show that reflects your voice, your aspirations, and what you like.
The choice is yours.

Click here for the Comedy Spec Script list.

Drama Spec Script 2010 – What is hot and what is not

Drama Spec Script 2010 – What is hot and what is not


UPDATED:
A brand new 2019 list has been posted.
Click here to access it.


After criss-crossing several sources, it is now time to review what dramas are good to spec, and which are not.
As usual, when available, a sample script is offered for each show listed — usually the pilot episode.

Let’s do again a quick recap of how this works.

The shows are divided into five categories regarding their appeal to readers and how well they are known/read:
– Over-specced (shows that have passed their prime, try to avoid doing them)
– Mainstream (shows that have matured enough that they have become on-the-nose speccers — and a lot of people are speccing them)
– Wild Cards (soon, everyone will spec those, maybe you can get a head start)
– Outsiders (specs that will get you out from the pack)
– Gamblers (newcomers that could potentially become popular down the line — if they’re not canned first)

There is also a grade regarding the show’s longevity in relation to specs of said show.
Meaning, how long can you keep your spec script without having to throw it in the trash?
To do this, we use what I think is the greatest grading system on Earth; stars:
★★★★★ – Excellent
★★★★★ – Very Good
★★★★★ – Average
★★★★★ – Fair
★★★★★ – Poor

And here we go.

Over-Specced
Re-tool your spec if you have one, but you probably shouldn’t bother beginning a new one for those shows.

CSI/Law & Order (CBS/NBC)
Type: Police procedurals
Past their expiration date.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – Nothing’s A-Changin’ for this one. It still will get “real old, real fast.”

Dexter (Sho)
Type: Serialized crime drama
As predicted last year, the Dexter time has passed, killed by its own popularity (commonly known as the hotness monster).
Longevity: ★★★★★ – If you’ve seen the end of season four, you know what I mean when I say your spec won’t survive the fifth season premiere.

Grey’s Anatomy/Private Practice/House (ABC/FOX)
Type: Medical procedurals
It is harsh putting these three shows at the same level, but the truth of the matter is that they’ve all already been done to death(s), literally.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – Renewed, and renewed, and renewed.

Mad Men (AMC)
Type: Serialized historical drama
This might be a surprise for some, but it’s the same reasoning as 30 Rock: everyone is doing it. Sure, you won’t go wrong with a Mad Men spec, but it certainly won’t be an original choice.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – And not only that, but who knows what’s going to happen with all the massive changes at the end of last season? You would need to stumble on major plotlines to get this spec going, which is never good.

Mainstream
The current and new widespread shows in town that are getting read.

Bones (FOX)
Type: Police procedural
Still a mainstream procedural that’s probably living its last year(s) as a tangible spec.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – Doesn’t mean the show is going to die soon though (you know, strong ratings and all that).

Breaking Bad (AMC)
Type: Serialized character/family drama
Although it was last year a “Wild Card”, the series has now become pretty much mainstream, replacing Mad Men as one of the most sought-out speccable shows. As much as this is true, I would still not recommend beginning a new spec for three reasons: first, the show is way more popular than you’d think (meaning more competition), second it’s heavily serialized, and third…
Longevity: ★★★★★ – …the end of season two hinted at a different character dynamic altogether for season three. See Mad Men on why that could be problematic.

Chuck (NBC)
Type: Light spy/action procedural
On the one hand, Chuck is still an offbeat drama that has a lot of potential, so you shouldn’t throw your current spec out the window.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – On the other hand, the series recently scored its lowest rated episode ever. Beyond that however, the status quo is simply not quo anymore, so it’s hard to find the correct balance between serialized stories and “mission of the week.”

Fringe (FOX)
Type: Police/Science-fiction procedural
At this point, the show is more fantasy-fiction than science-fiction. With that said, its procedural side is undoubtedly attractive to many.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – It got beaten hard in its new Thursday timeslot, and despite this, the notoriously-fickle FOX network renewed it. Yeah, it’s safe. Plus, the core dynamics of the show will probably not change much in these next episodes.

Gossip Girl/90210 (The CW)
Type: Teen dramas
When it comes to this subgenre, there’s no debate that, yet again, these are the shows to spec.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – The CW is hanging tight on those two.

The Mentalist (CBS)
Type: Police procedural
Surely the hottest specced procedural right now. Maybe you can play with the Red John storyline.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – This one is pretty much safe.

True Blood (HBO)
Type: Serialized fantasy drama
At one point an “Outsider”, it has now become surprisingly common. I say surprisingly because it is a hard speccer, given both its dense mythology and the fact that it is based on a series of books.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – HBO is certainly not going to can it. Maybe you can predict the future of the show via said novels, but Alan Ball has already changed major stuff. Would your season one spec really fit into a season three narrative?

Wild Cards
Not quite fully widespread but will get there given the chance.

Burn Notice/Psych (USA)
Type: Light action and crime procedurals
Although less popular than a few months back, story ideas have not been exhausted yet…
Longevity: ★★★★★ – …and USA isn’t letting them go anytime soon.

Caprica (Syfy)
Type: Serialized science-fiction drama
This category choice might also surprise some people. If you look at Caprica, unlike the early days of Battlestar Galactica (or SGU), you don’t have a standard formula, at least regarding a potential ‘procedural’ aspect. There are overarching stories that more or less get expanded throughout the various episodes, but you don’t have a stand-alone crisis each episode. If you do decide to spec this, tread lightly…
Longevity: ★★★★★ – …especially considering the regular character and mythological developments, as well as its lukewarm ratings.

Castle (ABC)
Type: Police procedural
Will most likely take over Bones‘ place in the spec world.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – Strong 10PM ratings means its nearly-assured renewal. Its classic ‘case of the week’ format is also a crowd-pleaser.

Glee (FOX)
Type: Light serialized high-school drama
Probably one of the most difficult specs out there, despite its overwhelming popularity. It is indeed hard to get past the serialized aspect of the series, as well as its primary use of popular songs which contradicts with the need for a spec script to be realistically producible.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – Glee is definitely in for the long run. Try to be careful with the arrival of new cast-members and soapy twists.

Leverage (TNT)
Type: Light heist/con/action procedural
Most likely will become one of the hottest spec, the series proved this season it could go beyond the basic “con of the week” and offer actual season-long arcs (and big pay-offs). Regardless, the show’s procedural formula can still be applied to your spec. John Rogers’ blog has tons of other behind-the-scenes info about the writing.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – A major drama for TNT getting renewed early. I would say wait until the season three premiere (and Gina/Sophie’s comeback) before going the hands-on approach.

NCIS:LA (CBS)
Type: Police procedural
A spec as worthy now as its older brother was in its heydays…
Longevity: ★★★★★ – …thanks in part to phenomenal ratings.

Southland (TNT)
Type: Police procedural
The little cop show that could. Saved by the bell, it is still the underdog police drama on TV and a speccer with great potential.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – Don’t take it as granted though: the ratings are going down fast. You should wait for a definite yes from TNT before beginning a breakdown.

Outsiders
The shows (mostly cable) you may be tempted to take a risk on, getting you on top of the reading pile. Beyond that, it depends on the willingness of the reader and his/her knowledge of the show. Who knows, maybe the showrunner is into less popular shows and will value your risk-taking.

Eureka/Warehouse 13 (Syfy)
Type: Science-fiction procedurals
Yes, believe it or not they are getting specced; and for good reasons. Stand-alones are easy to place inside any of their seasons. Even Eureka, soon in its fourth season, still has some spec potential as a procedural. Not to mention the fact that there are not many other science-fiction shows out there.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – You can count on them being on TV for some time, and major mysteries/arcs can be easily avoided in a potential story.

The Good Wife (CBS)
Type: Legal procedural
IT is hard to define this show, but one thing’s for sure: it will become a hot speccer very soon.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – You shouldn’t be worried for Julianna Margulies anymore, she has found her goldmine.

Stargate: Universe (Syfy)
Type: Serialized science-fiction procedural
This might seem antinomic, but the truth is, SGU is way more serialized than its two predecessors. Still, some episodes can center around the usual “problem of the week,” and therefore give a more procedural aspect to the show, which makes it much more speccable than you’d think.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – Long live the Stargate franchise. Be careful that future episodes don’t change major events in your spec.

White Collar (USA)
Type: Light crime procedural
This year’s dark horse, it could down the line become a major speccer for light procedurals.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – It definitely seems it’s going to be here for a few seasons.

Gamblers
For one reason or another, these are much riskier specs to do right now. You have been warned.

Dark Blue (TNT)
Type: Police procedural
This is a gambler simply because it is virtually unknown compared to the other police procedurals. This might be a good thing usually, but I’d hold off speccing this…
Longevity: ★★★★★ – …until it’s deep into its second season and more acknowledged.

Human Target (FOX)
Type: Action procedural
As virtually the only reliable (formula-wise) action-drama on television, you’d think it would be the go-to show to spec. But if you look at it more carefully, there are just too many unknown variables for now.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – If anything, the series is in strong danger of getting canceled. Try to wait for a renewal before starting on your script.

Parenthood (NBC)
Type: Serialized family drama
Are you seriously considering speccing this one? Let’s get real.
Longevity: ★★★★★ – Despite a possible second season, already finding a formula you can lean on for your spec is near-impossible this early.

With over thirty shows reviewed, we can spot of few trends.

Showtime is almost totally absent from this list mainly because of their lack of dramas (they’re more into half-hours it seems). FX is also not listed thanks to their current programming renewal. The basic-cable shows from AMC, TNT, and even Syfy and USA, continue to rise on the spec market.

A lot of new shows are already getting specced right off the bat, primarily due to some early pick-ups, shorter seasons, and dying classics.
I would advise against getting too invested into a spec unless you know for sure the show has been renewed.
Besides the cancelation factor, you also have to consider if the show is heavily serialized or not.
I didn’t include series like FlashForward, V, or even Sons of Anarchy, as they are all nearly impossible to spec at this time. Your spec would be hard to put into “stasis mode” due to the ever-changing storylines.
(Semi-)Procedurals are still the norm, though a lot more serialized shows are getting some sense of success. Even what appear to be classic procedurals such as The Mentalist still have a few arcs you can play with.
The bottom line is the same as usual: chose a show that reflects your voice, your aspirations, and what you like. You really do have a wide array to choose from.

So now, let me ask you this: What are you speccing?