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Seven Years of TV Predictions

Seven Years of TV Predictions

Why even bother talking about my “TV predictions” over the past seven years?
For one, I can’t resist channeling my Nikki Finke, and screaming “TOLDJA!” over and over again.
More importantly though, looking back, I’m actually surprised at the amount of things I predicted in the first place.
And what better way to celebrate seven years than by tooting one’s horn?

Let’s start with hipsterdom: the cool things I thought were cool before everyone else.

Numero uno has got to be, hands down, Breaking Bad. Remember: that show was so underrated, I thought it would never win an Emmy. Thankfully, everyone came to their senses before the series finale. Praising Breaking Bad has since become a banality.

There’s another show, and tad more recent in the US TV-verse: Black Mirror. Or as I called it: the best UK show no one knows about.
Also worth noting on the list: The Shadow Line, Dancing on the Edge, Inside Men, Cuckoo, Mr. Selfridge, and The Hour.

Say it with me: TOLDJA (that these were great shows)!

I know. Those weren’t really TV industry predictions. (I did mention being a hipster though.)

How about this…

Six years before ClickHole happened, I did this amazing list of five games Hollywood should make into movies. If only I had also written for Buzzfeed, I would be able to call myself a journalist!
The aforementioned comedic clickbait list was in response to a previous post I did about Hollywood’s trivial pursuit of games. (Get it?) Thankfully, we didn’t get many of these adaptations on the screen. Although we are getting Pixels.

Okay.
Moving on to actual TV industry predictions.

Let’s address the big elephanTOLDJA in the room with a post from early 2011—

Is Netflix’s original programming strategy a game-changer?

Spoiler alert (if you haven’t read the original post): yes.

The House of Cards two-season deal had just been announced, so I wrote this think-piece about the future of television. Over four years later, people are just starting to realize this apparently. Yet we’ve already seen it’s already the case: Netflix has changed the game. Good thing I bought some Netflix shares when they were under $85.

And speaking of the future of television—
On the cusp of the 24 and Lost series finales (over five years ago!), I published an extensive article entitled “Ding Dong, Appointment TV is Dead“.
As the name doesn’t imply but outright states, I dig deep into the rise and fall of so-called “appointment TV”—now extinct.
And I know what you’re going to say, which is why way back when I also mentioned the current advent of “Event TV”. Oh, and “social television”. Because Twitter.

Which brings us to two little articles from 2008…
Nine ideas to save television – Part One and Part Two.

As of June 2015, I’m 9 for 9 on applied and successful ideas. Why am I still not CEO of ViaDisneyBCVersal? Maybe I should have gotten an MBA in horribleness.

Several of my nine ideas have since become ubiquitous:
– (1) Shows all year long
– (2) VOD
– (3) Fewer ads
– (5) Cost efficiency
– (6) Webisodes
– (9) Taking chances

The other three are a bit more recent “trends” (for better or for worse):
– (4) Shorter seasons
Pretty self-explanatory now, but seven years ago, it was a head-scratching thought for a lot of people. I even called it, yes, a game-changer.
– (7) Re-develop ideas and pilots
Look at the sea of reboots/makes/quels we’re in. It’s all about IPs now. I also suggested networks should redevelop/tweak their DOA pilots. Almost a no-brainer strategy nowadays.
– (8) Big names for big shows
This one is now an entrenched problem, and controversial for a lot of up-and-coming writers. It’s now harder than ever to transition from the lower echelons to EP-level. All thanks to networks only wanting “seasoned showrunners” for their writing rooms. And that’s about 20 people in this town.

So. That’s that.
Yes, I just spent an entire post patting myself on the back. It’s just another way of celebrating the evolution of TV over the past seven years.

I’ll be sure to make a ton of other predictions. I seem to always be right. I also need an encyclopedia to keep track of every good TV show out there.

Too much content. The ultimate first-world problem.

Seven Years of TV Industry

Seven Years of TV Industry

The television industry has evolved more in the past seven years than in its previous seven decades.
That’s a bold statement, I know. Let’s take a look at the business-related stories I did in that time.

One of my very early posts was a manifesto entitled “why TV is where you must be“.

Who would have thought 2 years ago that a small basic-cable movie channel was going to make not only one but two innovative shows, let alone one that wins Best Drama?

That was 2008. The network was AMC. The two shows were Mad Men and Breaking Bad.
Seven years later, AMC’s TV shows are everywhere. Hell, television shows are everywhere. It’s even a banality to say that.

We’ll dig into some of my TV industry predictions tomorrow, namely my “Nine ideas to save television“, also from 2008. In the meantime, let’s take a look at some other classics about the business.

The big NBC 2009 move was to put Jay Leno in primetime, every day. No more NBC dramas. My reaction was, maybe, an over-reaction. “Is NBC killing television?“, I wondered.

If everyone would pull a Zucker, and every network would simply remove dramas from the 10PM slot, original primetime content would be swallowed by clones of clones of clones of shit. […] I’m hoping that FOX/ABC will wake the fuck up and seize this great opportunity to be the underdog; bringing alternative, groundbreaking content to this 10PM slot.
Don’t ruin this for us, guys.
Please.

This reaction led, in turn, to a counter-over-reaction: “Is NBC reviving television?”
What I was actually talking about though was simple—

As I pointed out yesterday, the 10PM slot is begging to be changed.
Well, not really “begging”.
CBS’ Les Moonves himself declared the other day that “Taking a third [broadcast] competitor out of the marketplace will make us even stronger”, though he said that for different reasons (“‘CSI: Miami’ on Monday at 10 o’clock will beat Jay by a lot. Remember that. By a lot.”).
The Leno-move should not be without consequences for the 10PM slot on the other nets.
I am not talking about drastic schedule changes here (even if I’m guessing it’ll unfortunately come to that — affiliates anyone?).
I am talking here more about quality changes.
We have in one corner C.S.I., and in the other Jay Leno.
Bring on the alternative!
And if there aren’t any alternative on the Big Five, then we sure as hell will tune to other content-providers.
Like Cable.

Yup, still sounds about right seven years later.

We could also talk about my Emmy (2008, 2009, 2010, 2011) and Oscar (2009, 2010, 2011) recaps. I miss doing them. Maybe I should start covering again.

There’s hundreds of industry stories we covered over the years, but there’s only be a handful I really cared to dedicate lengthy articles for. Some we’ll talk about tomorrow (Netflix, the future of the TV industry, etc.).
Others, well, I’ll mention them right now.

Since we’re on the subject of alternative programming, Lordy wrote about potential “new outlets for scripted fare” in the days of 2010. Namely: A&E, Starz, EPIX. Kudos on the foresight.
He also did a great piece about “what’s it gonna take to bring your bubble show back?” Among his solutions: international/DVD sales, other networks, and a producer with clout. Rare options five years back, but now mainstays to save (or bring back) TV series.

On my end, I wrote last year two pieces on the great Stephen Colbert, one in reaction to his Late Late Show announcement, and the other for his last Colbert Report episode.
Now I’m bummed.
Let’s cheer up by reading my review of the Jay Leno Show.

Overall, it was your typical Jay Leno talk-show.
There was no “revolution” here, just me being mostly bored.

Ah, the good old days of NBC bashing. I’m feeling nostalgic.

Reminds me of the time I asked Lorne Michaels “what he did”.

Everyone (including the President himself) is telling you to hire someone being able to do a good Obama impersonation, so you audition great comedians, and then you don’t hire any of them?
What. The. Fuck.

And now, he’s adding two new female cast peeps.
Okay, that’s a good thing.
But then he subsequently fires two other female cast members (Michaela Watkins and Casey Wilson)?!
What. The. Fuck.

[And] according to E!‘s Ted Casablanca, Wilson was asked to loose 30 pounds during the hiatus (and was fired because she didn’t).
What. The. Fuck.

At least Casey Wilson got Happy Endings out of all of this.

Can you believe I’ve been crying about the TV business for seven years now?
I can, but I don’t want to. Otherwise I’ll start crying again.

Let’s see where the TV industry is heading next.

The Netflix of it All (Week Roundup)

The Netflix of it All (Week Roundup)

Well here we go again…

If last Friday was all about HBO’s victory lap, on this week’s roundup we take a look at one of the biggest OTT (over-the-top) competitors: Netflix.

Netflix Is Betting Its Future on Exclusive Programming

The NY Times once again posted a great in-depth television piece, shining a light on Netflix. The article offers a behind-the-scenes look at the cryptic online network. Although there isn’t that much revealed people don’t already know, it still is an interesting side of the OTT network, full of confidence. The focus of the piece is on what Netflix has been trying to accomplish for a while now: lots of great original content.
It has been over four years since I announced Netflix’s original programming strategy was going to be a game-changer. Looks like I’m only getting proven more correct as days go by. The new era has been ushered. As Reed Hastings, CEO’s Netflix, explains:

We’ve had 80 years of linear TV, and it’s been amazing, and in its day the fax machine was amazing. The next 20 years will be this transformation from linear TV to Internet TV.

Better play catch-up now.

Is Netflix Friend or Foe to the TV Industry? It’s More Confusing Than Ever

Continuing on Netflix, VideoNuze offers two perspectives on the OTT’s wide content expansion, both as a friend to the television industry, and as a foe. Time will tell as to which of the two the network really is, but for now, the article offers some interesting points:

While licensing deals have been fattening studios’ and TV networks’ bottom lines, they’ve also been improving the quality of Netflix and other OTT providers’ content, in turn creating better subscriber experiences. With time being finite, eventually Netflix viewing had to come out of the hide of TV viewing.

There has been a staggering 19.2% drop from year-to-year in TV viewership from the 18-24 year-olds. It’s not surprising that a lot of those who are cutting the cable cord (or never had it in the first place) are also switching off whatever TV set they may have in favor of Internet-based content. This will be even more interesting when it comes to kids or youth-based networks. Will parents still have their TVs on, or will they pit other screens in front of their children?

And this brings us to our next article…

The World’s Love Affair with the TV May Be Coming to an End

Perhaps a big over-dramatic with its title, the Daily Dog doesn’t just use Nielsen’s own findings but rather discusses the results of “Digital Video and the Connected Consumer”, a report from Accenture. In it, Accenture notes that video consumption has skyrocketed while traditional TV viewership has plummeted.

Nearly all age brackets reported double-digit declines in TV viewing globally, with 14- to 17-year-olds abandoning the TV screen at the rate of 33 percent for movies and television shows and 26 percent for sporting events. This decline continues for 18- to 34-year-olds at 14 percent for movies and television shows and 12 percent for sporting events, and for 35- to 54-year-olds, at 11 and nine percent, respectively. It does, however, flatten among the 55 and older crowd, at six percent and one percent respectively.

Now here is the most interesting part of the report, as described by Accenture’s Gavin Mann:

TV shows and movies are now a viewing staple on mobile devices of all shapes and sizes, thanks to improved streaming and longer battery life. The second screen viewing experience is where the content creators, broadcasters and programmers will succeed or fail.

A pretty ballsy claim. I do have to agree with one thing: it is clear that it’s not just OTT, but also mobile screens that will shape the near-future of video content. Note that new entrants will still have to prove themselves over traditional medium. Content discovery in this brand new world is still more than a step away from becoming a solved issue.